ЦБ снизил ключевую ставку: доллар скакнет выше 60 рублей

ЦБ снизил ключевую ставку: доллар скакнет выше 60 рублей

Банк России продолжает играть против национальной валюты

ЦБ снизил ключевую ставку: доллар скакнет выше 60 рублей
фото: Геннадий Черкасов

Нынешнее решение Банка России о снижении ключевой ставки — второе с начала года. В 2017 году регулятор принимал шесть аналогичных постановлений, снизив ставку с 10,5% до 8,25%. Такая политика объяснима. В конце прошлого года Путин заявил, что в нашей страны сформировалась приемлемая ситуация для движения в этом направлении, а, поскольку бизнес испытывает проблемы с привлечением займов по действующим высоким процентам, необходимо стимулировать частные банки к снижению ставок.

Как заявила председатель ЦБ Эльвира Набиуллина после заседания, «еще есть потенциал для снижения ставки. Мы рассчитываем завершить переход к нейтральной политике в этом году». «Нейтральный уровень будет колебаться в пределах 6-7%», — полагает директор по инвестициям ИК «Питер Траст» Михаил Алтынов.

Между тем, далеко не все эксперты уверены, что кредиторы согласятся смягчать условия выдачи займов. По словам ведущего аналитика AMarkets Артема Деева, ЦБ лишь рекомендует им снижать ставки, а не обязывает это делать. Доля займов в кредитных портфелях большинства финансовых институтов, выданных по ставке, привязанной к ставке ЦБ, не превышает 5%. Подавляющая часть заемщиков по-прежнему вынуждена работать с кредитами в лучшем случае под 10% годовых.

Даже такие проценты предлагаются лишь проверенным заемщикам, чья кредитная история не запачкана задержкой выплаты процентов. Рядовые клиенты вынуждены занимать под 14-15%. Это прекрасно понимает и сам регулятор. «Банки по-прежнему консервативно подходят к отбору заемщиков и увеличению объемов кредитования», — говорится в сообщении ЦБ, вышедшем после заседания 23 марта.

В свою очередь, процентные ставки по депозитам рискуют снизиться. По мнению финансового аналитика FxPro Александра Купцикевича, в отличие от ситуации с кредитами, проценты по которым частные банки не любят уменьшать, ставки по вкладам они снижают с удовольствием. В ближайшее время можно ожидать падение доходности депозитов на 0,25% — ровно на столько, на сколько регулятор снизил ставку рефинансирования. «Намерение и далее смягчать кредитную политику еще сильней настроит банки на сокращение доходности депозитов, которое будет продолжаться до конца года». — отмечает эксперт.

Есть еще один неприятный момент. Снижение ставки, как правило, всегда отражается на национальной валюте страны, центробанк которой смягчает денежно-кредитную политику. Ключевая ставка в 7,25% существенно отличается от уровня инфляции, которая сейчас составляет 2,2% в годовом измерении. «Серьезный разрыв между ставкой и инфляцией создает нестабильность на валютном рынке. Интерес с рублевым активам постепенно снижается, тогда как доходность кредитных инвестиционных инструментов, эмитированных в долларах, растет», — считает руководитель аналитического отдела Grand Capital Сергей Козловский.

Нельзя забывать про внешние факторы, влияющие на курс российской валюты. На последнем заседании ФРС, которое прошло 21 марта, американский регулятор повысил свою процентную ставку на 0,25%, до диапазона в 1,5-1,75%. Разнонаправленное движение российского и американского индикатора открывают возможность для масштабной валютной спекуляции. В такой ситуации, по мнению начальника аналитического департамента УК «БК-Сбережения» Сергея Суверова, курс российской валюты упадет с нынешних 57-и до 60 рублей за доллар и ниже.

Получайте короткую вечернюю рассылку лучшего в «МК» — подпишитесь на наш Telegram.

Источник: mk.ru

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